It’s official: real estate has nudged aside oil and gas in Nigeria’s economic hierarchy. According to the 2025 National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) rebasing report, the sector is now the nation’s third-largest economic engine, sitting just behind crop production and trade. This isn’t just a minor move; the NBS rebasing exercise (shifting the base year from 2010 to 2019) confirms that real estate has fundamentally outpaced the oil sector, a long-standing titan of the Nigerian GDP.

The numbers tell a compelling story. Crop Production leads the pack at 17.58%, Trade follows at 17.42%, and Real Estate now claims a solid 10.78%. Per the NBS Statistician-General, the total economy ballooned to N372.82 trillion in 2024—a massive leap from the N205.09 trillion recorded in 2019. By the close of 2025, real estate maintained a 3.43% growth rate, while non-oil sectors accounted for a dominant 97.13% of the total GDP.

THE GDP REVERSAL (REAL ESTATE VS OIL)

To get the full picture, look at the “before and after” of the rebasing. In 2023, under the old metrics, real estate was valued at N10.5 trillion. The updated 2019-base methodology saw that figure revised upwards by N20.2 trillion to a total of N30.7 trillion. By the following year, 2024, the sector’s value hit N41.3 trillion.

Essentially, real estate’s GDP share jumped from 6.24% to 10.78% overnight. If you factor in construction, the combined contribution rises to 15.9% (an N14.6 trillion increase in total value). Meanwhile, crude petroleum and natural gas have slipped to fifth place, holding just 5.85% of the rebased GDP. In Q1 2025, the momentum held steady with 18.08% nominal growth, contributing 17.4% to quarterly GDP nominally and 13.30% in real terms.

What’s Actually Driving the Growth?

This surge isn’t just about better accounting. It’s a mix of methodological shifts, raw demand from urbanisation, and the reality of inflation.

• Statistical Transparency: The NBS now tracks previously “invisible” activity—informal property deals, rental income, and brokerage services. This informal sector alone was worth N86.85 trillion in 2019 (42.5% of GDP). Capturing this formally has given the sector’s valuation a massive boost.
• The Urban Push: Nigeria’s cities are growing at 4% annually—double the global average. As of 2025, 55% of the population is urban, with Lagos alone home to over 20 million people. That creates a demand for housing that no statistical revision can fake.
• The Inflation Factor: Construction costs have soared by 300% since 2019, largely because the Naira moved from N360 to over N1,600 against the USD. This naturally inflates property values in Naira terms, boosting the sector’s nominal GDP contribution even if real output growth is more measured.

The Macro Environment

Nigeria’s economy is anchored by structural demand. We have a 28-million-home housing deficit, and we need roughly 700,000 new units every year just to keep our heads above water. Since we aren’t building at that scale, demand is only going one way: up.

The “Diaspora Dollar” is another massive factor. Remittances hit USD 20.93 billion in 2024—four times the size of total foreign investment. Most of this capital flows directly into Lagos and Abuja real estate. To make this easier, the CBN launched the Non-Resident Nigerian Investment Account (NRNIA) in 2025, giving overseas Nigerians a regulated, safe route to buy property back home.